Professor Allan Lichtman’s method for predicting the winners of the U.S. popular votes since 1984. The 13 keys to the White House

Hausarbeit , 2020 , 20 Seiten

Politik - Region: USA

This paper will focus on what Lichtman calls the "Thirteen Keys to the White House" and how he used them to predict the outcomes of the last nine presidential elections. To do so, his book "The Keys to the White House" which was firstly published in 1996 is required as the main source for the following steps that will serve as the leading topics of each chapter of this paper.

The first chapter will briefly summarize and explain Lichtman’s thirteen keys and how they were determined as critical indicators for predicting the winner of a presidential election. In a second step and therefore in the second chapter the focus will lie on how Lichtman decided whether a key applied to a residing President or not, especially regarding certain keys which cannot be answered simply because of extraordinary circumstances surrounding particular candidates of the various presidential elections since 1984. As Lichtman stated that the presidential race between Republican candidate Donald J. Trump and Democratic candidate and former First Lady of the United States Hillary Clinton was the hardest election to predict, a third chapter will focus on the reasons for that. Additionally, the chapter will try to apply the keys to a new election by assuming that Donald Trump will run for office again.

Inhalt

1. Introduction

2. Allan J. Lichtman’s Thirteen Keys to the White House

3. Applying the thirteen keys to different candidates and elections
3.1. Ronald Reagan versus Jimmy Carter in 1980
3.1.1. Carter’s pr esidency and his sta rting position
3.1.2. Reagan’s Hollywood charisma versus Carter’s scandals
3.1.3. Third-party and Republican challengers
3.2. George W. Bush’s successful reelection in 2004
3.2.1. Bush’s militar y actions before and after 9/11
3.2.2. Torture and inertia
3.2.3. Bush claims the political keys one to four
3.2.4. John Kerry and George W. Bush – two uncharismatic candidates

4. Turning the keys to the White House 2016: Trump & Clinton
4.1. An empty office: The democratic situation post-Obama
4.2. The remaining keys
4.3. The fourth key – Lichtman’s error

5. Conclusion

Bibliography

Register of images

• Hochschule: Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn
• Autor: Tim Nienaber (Autor:in)
• Erscheinungsjahr: 2020
• Seiten: 20
• Katalognummer: V703193
• ISBN (eBook): 9783346219299
• ISBN (Buch): 9783346219305
• Sprache: Englisch
• Schlagworte: allan, house, lichtman’s, professor, white