The main question which results through the theme is: “Are German real estates overvalued or can the development on the market be explained by macro-economic factors?”
To be able to answer this question it is necessary to firstly define what a bubble is and further analyze general criteria which can lead to it.
After that an analyzation of possible indicators which are linked to the two largest housing bubbles: the The Subprime Crisis in in the USA of the former decade and the housing bubble in Japan in the middle of the 90s will be done and a comparison of those crises will be given.
Based on those findings the development of the current real estate situation of Germany and an overall evaluation of possible legal and political instruments which are supposed to protect from a pricing bubble will be done.
The findings are based on literature review and include an empirical part with expert interviews when it comes to the risk of having a housing bubble specifically in Germany.
Index
FIGURE INDEX
TABLE INDEX
1 INTRODUCTIO
1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT
1.2 GOAL SETTING AND QUESTION OF RESEARCH
1.3 STRUCTURE AND PROCEDURE
2 THEORETICAL REFERENCE FRAME
2.1 PRICE FORMATION ON THE REAL ESTATE MARKET
2.2 DEFINITION OF PRICE BUBBLE
2.3 REASONS BEHIND A PRICE BUBBLE
2.3.1 Real Economic Terms
2.3.2 Fiscal Terms
2.3.3 Behavior Based Reasons
Limited Rationality
Greater-Fool
2.3.3.1 Institutionalization/ Herd instinct
2.4 CONSTRUCTION SCHEME OF A REAL ESTATE BUBBLE
2.4.1 Displacement
2.4.2 Boom
2.4.3 Euphoria
2.4.4 Profit Taking
2.4.5 Panic
2.5 INDICATORS OF A REAL ESTATE BUBBLE
2.5.1 Absolute/Relative Price Development
2.5.2 Price-Rent-Relation
2.5.3 Price-Income-Indicator
2.5. 4 Fundamentally Justified Price
2.6 CONSEQUENCES OF A REAL ESTATE BUBBLE
3 HOUSING BUBBLES IN THE PAST
3.1 SUBPRIME CRISIS USA
3.2 JAPAN CRISIS
4 ANALYSIS OF THE GERMAN MARKET
4.1 GENERAL INDICATORS
4.1.1 Development of the Demand
4.1.1.1 Population Growth
4.1.1.2 Household and age structure
4.1.2 Development of the Supply
4.1.3 Implications for the financial system
4.1.4 Bank Landing in Germany
4.2 KEY FIGURE ANALYSIS
4.2.1 Price-Rent Ratio
4.2.2 Price-Income Ratio
4.2.3 Tobin q
4.3 FURTHER INDICATORS
4.3.1 Inheritance
4.3.2 Foreign Investors
4.4 INTERPRETATION OF THE FINDINGS
5 CONCLUSION
6 OUTLOOK
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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¡Carge sus propios textos! Gane dinero y un iPhone X.