The paper examines the relationship between the nation of an M&A transaction’s target company and the probability of deal completion/ pre-merger failure based on a sample of transactions proposed by Dutch bidders during the period ranging from 2003 to 2015 with other Dutch companies; British (UK); or American (US) targets. By the logistic regression analysis, the US-targeted deals were found to be associated with higher probabilities of pre-merger failure which is aimed to be explained by applying a mediation analysis of several country-specific indicators potentially affecting the deal completion. This way, four factors which are addressed in the theoretical part of the paper (including the restrictiveness of the merger control mechanisms, effectiveness of corporate-related legislation and the time and complexity of contract enforcement) were found to be the mediators of the relationship between the target nation and pre-merger failure. Additionally, according to the regression results, transactions conducted during the end of a merger wave are expected to be less likely completed than the ones
negotiated in the earlier or later stages, regardless of the target nation.
Table of contents
List of Tables
List of Figures
List of Acronyms
1 Introduction
2 Literature Review
3 Merger Regulation
3.1 Antitrust Laws in the USA
3.1.1 The Sherman Act
3.1.2 The Federal Trade Commission Act
3.1.3 The Clayton Act
3.1.4 Federal Trade Commission Cases and Proceedings
3.2 Merger Regulation in the EU
3.2.1 Criteria for the EU Merger Regulation to Apply
3.2.2 The EU Merger Regulation Notification, Investigation and Penalties
3.2.3 The EU Merger Regulation Statistics
3.3 Comparison of the EU and US Merger Control Mechanisms
4 Takeover Defense Tactics
4.1 Dual-class Shares
4.2 ESOP
4.3 Poison Pills
4.4 Golden Parachute
4.5 Staggered Board Amendments
4.6 Greenmail
4.7 Comparison of the US, UK and Dutch Defense Tactics
5 Hypotheses Formulation
6 Logit Model Analysis
6.1 Methodology
6.1.1 Basic Assumptions of the Logit Model
6.2 Data Structure and Model Variables
6.2.1 The Dependent and Independent Variables
6.2.2 The Mediator Variables
6.2.3 The Moderator Variable
6.2.4 Descriptive Statistics
6.3 Logistic Regression Analysis
6.3.1 Hypothesis Testing
7 Robustness Test: Probit Model Analysis
8 Conclusion and Discussion
Bibliography
Appendix A: EU Merger Regulation Thresholds
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