The natural gas shipping industry in cross sea of the global circumstances

An approach of how participants of the natural gas shipping industry can conduct a scenario analysis within the complex and uncertain future for strategic decision-making

Master's Thesis , 2015 , 107 Pages , Grade: 10,0

Business economics - Miscellaneous

Shipping of natural gas across the oceans is of significant importance – linking the energy production business with the consuming nations around the globe. Natural gas supply is predicted to increment 1.9% p.a. until 2035, therewith facilitating its transportation as a commodity on board of currently 415 liquefied natural gas vessels and further 168 more to come by 2020. Despite its comparably small size of not even one percent of the worldwide merchant fleet within the industry of shipping, the carriage of natural gas on board of vessels has been overall on an upwind within the last twenty years, foremost due to the greater discovery of natural gas as a source of energy and an increased demand for energy resources in general.
Particularly the natural gas shipping industry underlies peculiar states of affairs: It is a highly technologized, investment intense segment which is affected by currents of political, economic, and environmental origin. Hence, natural gas shipowners as well as other participants upstream and downstream of this sector find themselves in difficulty of strategic decision-making. The purpose for this study has therefore been to investigate in how a natural gas shipping company and other market participants can take a farsighted strategic decision in the complex and uncertain business environment of today and, thereby, planning for the future. By using the scenario approach of modelling a complex world in single happenings, it will be thought deeply and creatively about the future whereof the most salient factors affecting this industry are illuminated. Upon these scenarios, various economic theories and models including an equation of natural gas ships demand are applied whose concepts could be exercised by market participants in order to adapt to ever-changing circumstances with vigilance and to reduce the risk of being unprepared for the future.
The study found that the global natural gas industry is impacted by the dynamics deriving from conditions enforced by, for instance, the ongoing financial and economic crisis, legislative forces, substitutionary effects of energy products, and political discord in natural gas providing as well as receiving countries. The outer-firm global contexts leave a footprint on the strategic decision-making of a firm. In addition, it was proofed that scenario conduction is a viable tool for strategic planning of a firm active in the natural gas shipping field in order to address the business ...

Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)

• Abstract
• 1 Introduction
• 1.1 The Natural Gas Shipping Industry
• 1.2 The Relevance of Scenarios
• 1.3 Research Questions
• 1.4 Structure of the Thesis
• 2 Theoretical Framework
• 2.1 Scenario Planning Methodology
• 2.1.1 The Scenario Approach
• 2.1.2 Scenario Planning Methodology
• 2.1.3 Scenario Development Technique
• 2.2 Economic Theories
• 2.2.1 Porter's Five Forces
• 2.2.2 The Theory of the Firm
• 2.2.3 The Theory of Comparative Advantage
• 3 Global Natural Gas Industry
• 3.1 Natural Gas Supply
• 3.2 Natural Gas Demand
• 3.3 Global Energy Demand
• 4 The Natural Gas Shipping Industry
• 4.1 The Industry Structure
• 4.2 The LNG Shipping Market
• 4.3 The Shipping Industry
• 4.4 Global Business Network
• 5 Scenario Development
• 5.1 Identifying Key Factors
• 5.2 Creating Scenarios
• 5.3 Scenario Analysis
• 6 Conclusion

Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)

This thesis investigates the strategic decision-making process for natural gas shipping companies in a complex and uncertain global environment. The primary objective is to explore how scenario planning can be utilized as a tool for strategic planning in this industry. The study aims to provide insights into how market participants can adapt to ever-changing circumstances and reduce the risk of being unprepared for the future.

• The role of scenario planning in strategic decision-making within the natural gas shipping industry.
• The influence of global economic, political, and environmental factors on the natural gas shipping market.
• The application of economic theories and models to analyze the impact of various scenarios on the demand for natural gas vessels.
• The importance of understanding the global energy landscape and its impact on the natural gas shipping industry.
• The development of a framework for scenario analysis that can be utilized by natural gas shipping companies and other market participants.

Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)

• Chapter 1: Introduction introduces the natural gas shipping industry and its significance in the global energy market. It also discusses the relevance of scenario planning for navigating the complex and uncertain future of the industry.
• Chapter 2: Theoretical Framework provides a comprehensive overview of the theoretical concepts that underpin the research, including scenario planning methodology, economic theories, and the role of uncertainty in strategic decision-making.
• Chapter 3: Global Natural Gas Industry analyzes the global natural gas market, examining supply, demand, and the global energy demand landscape.
• Chapter 4: The Natural Gas Shipping Industry delves into the specific characteristics of the natural gas shipping industry, including its structure, market dynamics, and the global business network.
• Chapter 5: Scenario Development outlines the process of developing and analyzing scenarios, including identifying key factors, creating plausible scenarios, and assessing their implications for the natural gas shipping industry.

Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)

The main keywords and focus topics of this thesis include scenario planning, strategic management, natural gas shipping, global energy demand, global natural gas industry, economic models, and uncertainty. The study explores the application of scenario planning methodologies and economic theories to address the challenges and opportunities faced by participants in the natural gas shipping industry within a complex and ever-changing global environment.

• College: University of Southern Denmark (Department of Business and Social Sciences)
• Course: Business economics - International Business & Management
• Grade: 10,0
• Author: Ulrike Niemann (Author)
• Publication Year: 2015
• Pages: 107
• Catalog Number: V315556
• ISBN (eBook): 9783668144682
• ISBN (Book): 9783668144699
• Language: English
• Tags: future studies, natural gas, natural gas industry, scenario methodology, scenario planning, shipping management, shipping, uncertainty, global energy demand, global energy markets, Global Business Network, economic models, economic theories, industry analysis, liquefied natural gas