The unpredictable future commonly makes people feel afraid of or curious about what is on the other side of the door. Scientists try to use a scientific approach and systematic assessment to explain the mechanisms of the world to make the future more visible. However, these mechanisms are constantly changed by the interaction between people or objects. Furthermore, the uncertainty principle, which is also called the Heisenberg principle, gives a clearly concept. In simple terms, this theory describes how the position and momentum of a particle cannot be measured at the same time. This is because the measurement itself has the ability to influence the status of the particle (Becchi, CM & D’Elia, M 2007). Similarly, any system should be considered as a whole if we are to manage risk and uncertainty in the future. Since the early 1930s, marked by the global economic crisis that resulted from the dramatic fall in American stock prices, economists have contemplated the theory of risk growth. This report will introduce the concept of risk, the methods used to assess and manage risk, and the ways in which uncertainty influences the process, with a practical example at the end of the discussion.
Inhalt
1. Introduction
2. Discussion
2.1 The concept of risk and uncertainty
2.2 The methods of risk assessment and management
3. Example
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Information Collecting
3.3 Risk in car rental
3.4 Example conclusion
4. Conclusion
5. Reference List
1. Introduction
The unpredictable future commonly makes people feel afraid of or curious about what is on the other side of the door. Scientists try to use a scientific approach and systematic assessment to explain the mechanisms of the world to make the future more visible. However, these mechanisms are constantly changed by the interaction between people or objects. Furthermore, the uncertainty principle, which is also called the Heisenberg principle, gives a clearly concept. In simple terms, this theory describes how the position and momentum of a particle cannot be measured at the same time. This is because the measurement itself has the ability to influence the status of the particle (Becchi, CM & D’Elia, M 2007). Similarly, any system should be considered as a whole if we are to manage risk and uncertainty in the future. Since the early 1930s, marked by the global economic crisis that resulted from the dramatic fall in American stock prices, economists have contemplated the theory of risk growth. This report will introduce the concept of risk, the methods used to assess and manage risk, and the ways in which uncertainty influences the process, with a practical example at the end of the discussion.
2. Discussion
2.1 The concept of risk and uncertainty
Accidents often happen in people's daily lives. Through continuous trial and error, people have learned how to avoid or reduce hazards caused by unexpected events. For example, the bus is not always on time; based on this experience, people choose to arrive at the bus stop earlier. To prevent the unexpected, people often make a plan before beginning an activity. This plan may contain a purpose, methods and a statement of the difficulties of risk in general. In other words, this plan not only illustrates the process but also points out the shape of risk. People make the future predictable in certain circumstances by drawing upon their own experiences or knowledge. Their experiences allow them to foresee the difficulties and consequences on the way to accomplishing their goals. This kind of thought process or plan-making process is part of risk assessment and risk management. Because risks have various forms and commonly appear in daily life, everyone could be considered an expert on risk in certain circumstances. Risk can be considered a combination of hazards and the probability of occurrence. The purpose of defining risk is to help develop standard procedures for assessing risk properly and to explain the working mechanism of risk appropriately. According to John Adams, the concept of risk can be divided into two different viewpoints: objective risk and perceived risk. In simple terms, objective risk explains the status of risk based on statistics, such as the number of fatal traffic accidents, separated by month, in London in 1990. The objective observation provides a clear view for systemically developing the mechanism of risk. On the other hand, perceived risk exposes the interaction between individuals and potential hazards. For example, when people live beside a highly trafficked road, they commonly feel that their environment is dangerous. Naturally, these residents would raise more awareness of traffic than people living in other areas. If the statistics from this area were considered in light of the concept of objective risk, though, the result would lose its credibility. As John Adams mentioned, when scientists tried to close the gap between objective risk and perceived risk with a scientific approach, eventually, they failed. The reason they failed when they tried to use a scientific approach to explain both objective risk and perceived risk is that the scientific theory may not fulfil the comprehensive situation. Uncertainty exists in the assessment process. The uncertainty means that there are unpredictable and unknown situations, consequences, or conditions that may influence the risk. It is inevitable to face uncertainty in a project. However, a design approach can be used to reduce the range of uncertainty. For example, consider a design-ready defect that acts as a safety barrier in an electrical circuit. In the case of a power overload, this defect would burn first and shut down the connection with other components. In this way the rest of the components could be protected.
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- Citation du texte
- Chia Lin Lin (Auteur), 2014, Risk Assessment and Management in Practice, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/300531
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