The growth population of Bangladesh is increasing rapidly since its independence. That may be because of the improvement of literacy rate, reduction of gender disparity, declination of maternal and child mortality rates, better medical technology and immense public health campaigns across the country. Because of the limited resource and increasing population the population projection is a hot cake for the upcoming tomorrow of the country.

This population projections can be used for a lot of number of purposes. It provides a tool for analyzing the components of population growth and the sensitivity of underlying the assumptions. The most important use of population projections is in the role they can play as a rational basis for decision making for Bangladesh. This study aims to analyze the population dynamics and their role for projecting future population of Bangladesh using “Spectrum (DemProj) software”.

Excerpt

Introduction

Fertility

Mortality

Total Population (projected) Trend Scenario in Bangladesh

Conclusion

References

Introduction

The growth population of Bangladesh is increasing rapidly since its independence. BBS (2015) claimed that it may be because of the improvement of literacy rate, reduction of gender disparity, declination of maternal and child mortality rates, better medical technology and immense public health campaigns across the country. Because of the limited resource and increasing population the population projection is a hot cake for the upcoming tomorrow of the country. This population projections can be used for a lot of number of purposes. It provides a tool for analyzing the components of population growth and the sensitivity of underlying the assumptions. The most important use of population projections is in the role they can play as a rational basis for decision making for Bangladesh (BBS, 2015). This study aims to analyze the population dynamics and their role for projecting future population of Bangladesh using “Spectrum (DemProj) software”.

Fertility

The fertility assumption can be summarized that, the medium scenario assumes that the TFR will drop to 2.1 (“replacement” level) in the 2031-36 period, and it will also drop to 1.9 in 2061. there are several assumptions has been addressed. The early marriage is still high in Bangladesh with 66 per cent of girls are married before the age of 18 (Kamal et al., 2015).

Again contraceptive prevalence rate is still not enough with 62.4 percent and 52 percent any modern method (BDHS 2014). On the other hand decreasing infant mortality which is 38 in 2014 following 87 in 1993-94 may have a great impact in fertility reduction and fertility preference in future (BDHS 2014). Increasing women empowerment, education, labour force participation, access to mass media and reducing level of poverty may have a profound impact on reducing fertility and it may continue in the coming decades till 2061 ( Khuda & Hossain, 1996).

Figure 1: Fertility assumption (Total fertility rate)

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