The purpose of this seminar paper is to determine Israel’s current economic situation, the economic outlook for the next two years and the mains risks the country is exposed to.
In this paper we evaluate Israel’s current real Gross Domestic Products (GDP) growth rate, current and lagging indicators influencing the GDP growth rate and different forecast models with input sample real GDP data. Finally the model with the best performance to forecast Israel’s real GDP growth will be applied, providing a forecast for the next two fiscal years.
Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)
- Summary
- Introduction
- Israel's Real GDP
- Data
- Oil Price
- Business Cycle
- Leading or lagging Indicators
- Forecast assumptions
- Exchange Rate
- Business cycle US
- Business Cycle forecast
- Introduction
- Our approach
- Methodology
- Evaluation Results
- Final Forecast
- Forecast Values and forecast Comparison
- Conclusion
- Risk analyisis
- Biblography
Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)
This seminar paper aims to analyze Israel's current economic situation, forecast its economic outlook for the next two years, and identify the main risks it faces. It assesses Israel's current real GDP growth rate, examines indicators influencing GDP growth, and evaluates different forecast models using real GDP data. The paper culminates in a forecast for the next two fiscal years using the best-performing model.
- Evaluation of Israel's current real GDP growth rate
- Analysis of indicators influencing GDP growth (leading and lagging)
- Assessment of different forecast models for Israel's real GDP
- Development and application of a forecast model for the next two fiscal years
- Identification of key economic risks facing Israel
Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)
- Chapter 1 provides a brief overview of Israel's economy, highlighting its historical context and current characteristics.
- Chapter 2 focuses on evaluating the current business cycle by extracting the trend (potential GDP) from the real GDP data using the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filtering method. This analysis considers the influence of oil prices and leading/lagging indicators on the business cycle.
- Chapter 3 explores exogenous parameters and their assumptions, which serve as a basis for the forecast that will be conducted in Chapter 4.
- Chapter 4 presents the forecast methodology, utilizing quarterly real GDP data from Q1/1995 to Q4/2015. This chapter compares different forecasting models using time series analysis and autoregressive approaches, evaluating their performance against real GDP data. The chapter concludes with the chosen model's forecast for the next two fiscal years.
Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)
This seminar paper focuses on Israel's economic situation, specifically its real GDP growth, business cycle analysis, and forecasting methods. The key concepts include GDP, leading and lagging indicators, HP filtering, time series analysis, autoregressive models, and risk analysis. The paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of Israel's economic outlook and its potential vulnerabilities.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main objective of the market study on Israel?
The study aims to analyze Israel's current economic situation, forecast real GDP growth for the next two years, and identify potential economic risks.
Which method is used to analyze Israel's business cycle?
The paper utilizes the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filtering method to extract the trend (potential GDP) from real GDP data.
What factors influence Israel's GDP growth in this analysis?
The analysis considers oil prices, leading and lagging indicators, exchange rates, and the US business cycle as influential factors.
Which forecasting models are evaluated in the paper?
The study compares different time series analysis and autoregressive models to find the best-performing approach for forecasting Israel's GDP.
What is the significance of the risk analysis section?
It identifies the main vulnerabilities and external shocks that could negatively impact Israel's economic outlook and growth forecast.
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- Kristal Robles (Autor:in), 2016, Market Study Israel. Forecasting Israel´s GDP Growth, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.grin.com/document/371826
