After its devastating defeat in World War II, Japan has become one of the major economic powers in the world, ending the twentieth century as the world’s second largest economy. Although Japan has grown to economic great-power status, its political weight in international politics lags far behind. Why is that? During the Cold War, Japan linked itself closely to the United States as the dominant regional force in East Asia. By renouncing war and the possibility to become a major military power again, Japan laid its national security almost fully in the hands of the United States. Japan’s dependence on U.S. power marginalized its role in world affairs. On the other hand, however, the security guaranteed by the United States provided the basis for Japan’s economic rise. Since the end of the Cold War, the parameters of the U.S.-Japan alliance have been called into question. Japan’s post-war foreign policy – known as “Yoshida Consensus” – which rejected the use of military might to achieve political ends and contained several self-imposed restrictions on the use of military has been softened more and more. A development that has been documented best in the deployment of Japan Self Defense Forces (JSDF) in Iraq by the Koizumi administration. Although the U.S.-Japan alliance is arguably stronger than ever before, the role of Japan within it is probably less secure than ever before. To understand this, it is necessary to analyze the circumstances which motivated Japan to change its long-time security approach. Indeed, the Asian region has changed dramatically since the end of the Cold War. Japan is now facing several new challenges, mostly important the rise of China, that haven’t played a role during the era of the iron curtain. Do those challenges require new policies? Is there a “new” Consensus about Japan’s foreign policy? What will be Japan’s strategy for the twenty-first century? Those are the questions this paper is about. The paper is separated into three parts. First, I will analyze the factors by which Japan’s foreign policy is determined. A step that is crucial to understand possible future security options. In the second section I will present different security options, Japan has in the future. Finally, I will sum up some of the results and will present a few of my own thoughts about Japan’s future.
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