Abstract
Geographic profiling is an investigative methodology that tries to determine the most probable residence of a serial offender by a geographical analysis of the majority of the crime locations (Chainey and Ratcliffe, 2005, p.27).
This literature-based dissertation focuses on the efficacy of geographic profiling methods. It aims to find out if recent geographic profiling methods are really supportive to the criminal investigative process and to what extent they can contribute to solve criminal cases. As a structured literature review, it seeks to evaluate the relevant evidence about the use of geographic profiling in terms of criminal detection and practical investigative applicability. This is done by using other completed literature reviews or research reviews, including evidence from these reviews and, additionally, by reviewing the use of GIS (Geographic Information Systems) in recent criminal cases.
This dissertation provides an insight into recent applications of geographic profiling and a presentation of the main profiling systems. The results of this dissertation are achieved by evaluating and comparing data from empirical research and by reviewing the evidence about the efficacy of this technique.
The efficacy and relative success of the application of geographic profiling in criminal investigations are supported by presenting a range of criminal cases solved with the contribution of geographic profiling methods. On the other hand, deficiencies in geographic profiling systems and applications are shown by the presentation of several other independent studies.
Overall, this dissertation concludes that the evidence reviewed suggests that geographic profiling can contribute to solve criminal cases to a crucial extent, i.e. in cases of locating the offender’s base or predicting where the next offence location is to be found, and thus, this thesis gives strong support for the use of geographic profiling in criminal justice investigations. Finally, the evidence also points to a growing importance of predictive crime prevention applications of this technology in future.
Table of Contents
Abstract
Overview of Appendices & Figures
Chapter 1: Geographic Profiling and Criminal Cases
How can Geographic Profiling Help in Criminal Case Processing?
Terminology of Geographic Profiling
Geographic Profiling in Criminal Cases
Measuring how much Geographic Profiling Contributes to Criminal Justice’s Success
Chapter 2: Theories of Travelling Behaviour Applied to Geographic Profiling
Typologies of Serial Offenders
Routine Activity, Rational Choice and Crime Pattern Theory
Behavioural Geography and Environmental Criminology
Travelling Habits by Offending Groups & Journey-to-Crime Conduct
Linking Crime Series by Modus Operandi: CCA - Comparative Case Analysis & CPA - Crime Pattern Analysis
Commuter and Marauder Models
Decay Functions in Geographic Profiling
Chapter 3: Geographic Profiling: How does it Work?
Implementation of Geographical and Criminological Theories in Geographic Profiling
Introduction into the Main Profiling Systems and Software and their Use
Criminal Investigation Programmes interacting with Geographic Profiling Systems 30
Case Studies: Examples for Practical Applications of Geographic Profiling in Police Work 32
Chapter 4: A Review on the Research Evidence on the Effectiveness of Geographic Profiling
Review of the Research Evidence on Geographic Profiling
Deficiencies in Geographic Profiling Techniques & Geographic Profiling Evaluation Methodologies
Human investigative skills vs. Geographic Profiling Software & Systems
Research Studies on the Efficacy of Geographic Profiling Systems
Conclusion on the Efficacy of Geographic Profiling Methods
Conclusion
Appendices
Bibliography
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