This study conducts a comprehensive PESTLE analysis spanning the decade from 2011 to 2020 across the ten member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The research aims to provide insights into the political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental factors influencing each nation within the ASEAN bloc during this period. By examining key variables within these domains, the study sheds light on the diverse and dynamic landscape of the ASEAN region, highlighting both common trends and unique challenges faced by individual member countries. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the complexities shaping the socio-economic and political dynamics within ASEAN, offering valuable perspectives for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders invested in the region's development and integration.
Introduction
The ASEAN was envisioned as a peaceful, stable, and resilient region within a global community of nations while still maintaining ASEAN centrality. ASEAN Community is envisioned as a community with enhanced capacity and capabilities to respond effectively to challenges and seize opportunities.
The ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC) aims to ensure regional peace and a just, democratic, and harmonious environment. The APSC shall aim to ensure that countries in the region live at peace with one another and with the world in a just, democratic and harmonious environment. The members of the Community pledge to rely exclusively on peaceful processes in the settlement of intra-regional differences and regard their security as fundamentally linked to one another and bound by geographic location, common vision, and objectives. It has the following components: political development; shaping and sharing of norms; conflict prevention; conflict resolution; post-conflict peacebuilding; and implementing mechanisms.
ASEAN is home to 20 percent of all known species of the world and is the center of the world’s marine biodiversity. All these rich natural resources, however, are confronted with immense environmental challenges and stresses. Increasing population, rapid urbanization, and progressive economic development have led to increasing demand and consumption of food, water, and energy. ASEAN region has also been facing a rise in average and extreme temperatures, increases in wet season rainfall, rainfall intensity and duration, and greater frequency of extreme events such as droughts, floods, and land and/or forest fires.
The outlook for 2022 remains positive, the economy should expand at a faster pace this year than in 2021. The relaxation of Covid-19 measures coupled with accumulated savings and tighter labor markets should buttress household spending. Moreover, the tourist sector will benefit from easing border restrictions. Elevated inflation, supply disruptions, and China’s renewed lockdowns cloud the outlook. According to preliminary data, regional inflation jumped to 5.1% in June from 4.5% in May. Faster price increases were recorded in heavyweights Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, as well as in Laos. High energy and commodity prices, disrupted supply chains, and recovering economic activity will fuel inflation this year.
Despite uncertainties and challenges posed by the COVID-19 outbreak, the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC) forges ahead in its efforts to address the socio-economic impacts of the pandemic and identify opportunities for revitalization of the ASEAN region post-pandemic. The young population in the region age 18 and below is increasingly engaged in the realization of their human rights amidst a number of existing and emerging threats. Across the region, children’s access to the internet creates opportunities but also raises concerns regarding online safety, including exploitation and abuse as well as breaches of personal privacy. Children are increasingly affected by the climate crisis, which exacerbates existing vulnerabilities and disparities. Voluntary and forced migration also significantly impacted children and their families. And the incidence of different forms of violence continues to negatively affect children in the region to the detriment of their potential contributions to ASEAN Community Building.
Objectives of the Study
The primary aim of this study is to present a PESTLE analysis for ASEAN member countries. from 2011 to 2020. The data from the 10 ASEAN countries are the subject of this study. The variables measured are the following, a) Political, b) Economic, c) Social, d) Technological, e) Legal, and f) Environment.
The objectives of the study are as follows:
1. To present a PESTLE analysis for ASEAN member countries;
2. To ascertain whether there are gender differences among ASEAN member countries in the following: population, adult literacy, life expectancy, labor force participation,
3. To determine whether there are differences in UN income status among ASEAN member countries in terms of the following variables: total trade and visitors arrivals, foreign direct investments, human development index, and internet users/100 people; and
4. To examine the determinants of GDP and the Human Development Index.
Significance of the Study
To make this study worth undertaking, the researcher identified the following stakeholders and sectors who will benefit from the findings of this research.
National Legislators: The study will help the current the national legislators to encourage more women to run in the election in order to have a balance legislation.
Academic Community. By the academic year 2022, the academic community, through the data, can consider including in their learning outcomes the ability of the students to measure PESTLE in the ASEAN country so that when they become business executives in the future they already know the PESTLE condition of our country compared to the other ASEAN country member.
Researchers. The study would help the research in terms of information dissemination about the current situation of the ASEAN country as this study will give the researcher a bird’s eye view of the current situation the PESTLE status in our country compared to the other ASEAN country member.
Future Researchers. The research study can be a good reference for succeeding researchers that will be having a related research study that can be used as a basis to improve future research regarding ASEAN Community.
Potential Users of the Study:
Policy-makers:
This study will help the agency to come up with measures on how to
improve our current PESTLE status.
Methodology
The study employed the descriptive method of research. Data were gathered, tabulated, analyzed and interpreted in order to address the objectives of the study.The study is about the ASEAN member countries where the ten countries are situated.
The subjects of the study were the 10 ASEAN Countries Members. The source and other support documents used in the analysis are all obtained from the ASEAN Statistical yearbook 2021 downloaded from the ASEAN website http://asean.org. The pertinent information of the respondent-10 ASEAN countries members during the year 2011-2020 are presented below, to wit;
Research Design
Descriptive Research uses descriptive design to understand an aspect of the situation in such that the researcher describes the existing situation of the subject of the study. One of the techniques of descriptive that is applied in this study is the survey technique wherein the researchers use the results of the survey for the interpretation of the study.
Research Environment
This study was conducted using the data consisting of pooled cross-section data from 2011-2020 of the ten ASEAN member countries. They are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Research Instruments
There were two (2) sets of data survey questionnaires used in this
study-Questionnaire A. PESTLE Analysis (ASEAN 2011-2020 Worksheet) and
Questionnaire B. Socio-demographic Profile of ASEAN Member Countries (ASEAN
2020 Worksheet).
Results and Discussion
The results of the study were conducted on the PESTLE status of the ten ASEAN member countries. This discusses also the Socio-demographic profile of the ASEAN member and the analysis and interpretation of the data gathered. The results of the statistical computation are summarized and presented accordingly.
Table 1 Pertinent Information on Study
[Editor’s note: This table is not part of this sample.]
Source: ASEAN Secretariat
The table shows the data which is consist of pooled cross-section data from 2011-2020 of the ten ASEAN member countries. They are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Table 2 Socio-Demographic Profile of ASEAN Member Countries, 2020
[Editor’s note: This table is not part of this sample.]
The table shows the total population (in thousand) of all ASEAN member countries in 2020 are 660,185.30, where the male population holds 50% and 49.98% are female, wherein 24.8% are between 5-19 years old and 50.8% the majority of the population belongs to the 20-50 years old.
Through the documentary analysis, it was gathered that the adult literacy rate for males is 94.31% while for females is 89.75%. The ASEAN population life expectancy rate is 71.14 years for males and 76.2 years for females while for the labor force participation rate is 76.31 % for males and 57.96% for females
Table 3 Political: % of Seats in National Legislature Held by Women
[Editor’s note: This table is not part of this sample.]
The table shows that the level of Seats in the National Legislature Held by Women is not quite high as indicated by the whole ASEAN mean of 18.04. Vietnam had the most average number of Seats in National Legislature Held by Women at 25.7% followed by the Philippines with 25.5%
This tends to show that the women’s legislature needs to win more seats during elections against the men candidate. It should be noted that in more advanced societies like the USA, the electorates can be swayed by the performance of candidates during public debates before elections.
Table 4 Economic
[Editor’s note: This table is not part of this sample.]
The data show that, as a whole, the economic level of influence of the ASEAN countries’ members is distributed only in four countries namely, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia. This can be attributed to the fact that the said four countries wield some power that can be used to influence others. Indonesia obtained the highest GDP current and followed by Thailand, while Singapore got the highest in total trade and was followed by Thailand and Malaysia.
Table 5 Social
[Editor’s note: This table is not part of this sample.]
The data in the table show that only 3 ASEAN country members with above 96% in adult literacy rate and 6 countries whose more than 50% of their population still reside in the rural area and only, one country (Singapore) that had a very good rate on life expectancy and a higher number in human development index. The data on the total population provide that Indonesia had the biggest number of population and was followed by the Philippines and Vietnam.
Table 6 Technological
[Editor’s note: This table is not part of this sample.]
The data show that in Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam more people are using the internet and mobile phone as indicated by the data in table no. 6. This can be due to the fact that the people in the said country are technically aligned compared to the rest of the ASEAN country member.
Table 7 Environment
[Editor’s note: This table is not part of this sample.]
As a whole, Indonesia had the biggest area among the whole ASEAN country member in which 50% of its area is still forest area. The table shows that three country members had more than 50% of their total area which is still under forest area. This may be so because their government is still environmentally friendly.
Conclusion and Recommendation
The study showed that the Legislators in the ASEAN region are predominantly male, because, only 18.04% of the total National Legislators are female, Vietnam had the most average number of Seats in National Legislature Held by Women at 25.7% followed by the Philippines at 25.5%. although outnumbered, contributed significantly by churning out policies promoting women and children’s welfare and helped in the crafting of a Gender and Development Manual for their respective countries. On the economic side, Indonesia had the biggest average GDP current (US$M) at 953,515.5 and followed by Thailand at 441,994.3, Lao PDR registered the highest average GDP growth at 6.8% followed by Cambodia at 6.7%. On the Labor force participation rate, Cambodia had the highest average rate at 81.5% followed by Vietnam at 76.9%.
Lao PDR had the highest average rate of Unemployment at 9.4% followed by Brunei Dar at 8.3% and Singapore registered the highest average Total Trade (USDM) at 742,544.1, followed by Thailand at 442,733.5. however, Singapore got the highest average Export of Services (USDM) at 163,214.2 and followed by Thailand at 57,799.7. On the ASEAN population (in 1,000), Indonesia had the biggest average population at 256,511.6, followed by the Philippines at 102,095.4, but with regard to the Urban population (in 1,000), Singapore had 100%, followed by Brunei Dar with 76.8% and Malaysia at 74.4%.
The ASEAN average Adult Literacy Rate (%), Singapore and Brunei Dar are tied at 96.9% and was followed by the Philippines with 96.4%, however for the average Life expectancy in years, Singapore is 82.9, and Brunei Dar at 77.7, followed by Thailand at 75.5. And for the Human development index, Singapore had an average index of .93 followed by Brunei Dar and Malaysia with both indexes of .9.
The majority of the ASEAN country possess adequate competence to perform and improve their current status, however, they need to level up their proficiency in all the dimensions of the PESTLE competence. Specifically, on the political side, National Legislators should acquire the basics of policy research and analysis, learn how to simplify complex issues, and develop strategies to effectively articulate the same to their colleagues and constituents. The ASEAN country should design more appropriate capability training for neophyte Legislators. And finally, more women should be encouraged to run for Legislative positions for better and more balanced Legislation.
It is recommended for the NEDA to devise a mechanism to monitor regularly and track the Economic growth of most ASEAN countries appears to have bottomed out during the second quarter of 2020 as All ASEAN members are quite heavily dependent on the rest of the world through trade, investments and other linkages.
The IMF (2021) projects a sharp recovery in world GDP in 2021, rising by 5.5 percent. Major economies such as China, the US, and the EU are projected to grow by 8.1 percent, 5.1 percent, and 4.2 percent, respectively, in 2021. The recovery of these economies is expected to boost exports and imports of goods and services in the region and recovery appears to be underway in the third quarter. This is true for both the countries that could not avoid a technical recession (the original ASEAN five members) or those with a forecast of negative annual growth (Cambodia). It is also true for the countries with positive quarterly growth so far (Brunei and Vietnam) or forecast positive annual growth (Laos and Myanmar). More high-frequency data such as trade flows, which are usually available on a monthly basis, suggest that the bottom may have been reached in or around May 2020 for most countries.
References
ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2021: ASEAN website http:// asean.org.
Asian Development Bank (ADB, 2020). Asian Development Outlook Update , September 2020. Manila: ADB.
ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO, 2020). ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook Update , Singapore: AMRO.
Baldwin, Richard (2020) “The supply side matters: Guns versus butter, COVID-style”, VoxEU, 22 March.
Cassey Lee, Siwage Negara and Maxensius Sambodo (2020) “Southeast Asia dodged the worst of Covid-19, but the economic devastation may last for years”, South China Morning Post, 30 September.
Hernandez, Daniela and Sarah Toy (2021). New Covid-19 Strains: What Scientists Know About Coronavirus Variants, Wall Street Journal, 28 January.
International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2020). World Economic Outlook, October 2020. Washington, DC: IMF.
International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2021). World Economic Outlook Update , January 2021. Washington, DC: IMF.
Krueger, Anne (2020). The Open Secret to Reopening the Economy, Project Syndicate , 23 July.
Menon, Jayant (2020a) “Time’s up on COVID-19 travel restrictions”, East Asia Forum , 27 October 2020.
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Menon, Jayant (2021), Better domestic surveillance, not closing borders, is key to containing coronavirus spread, South China Morning Post,6 February.