The aim of this reflection paper is to state my personal opinion whether I consider this specific technique of strategic foresight based on its advantages and disadvantages as useful or not. The paper is structured as followed. To open the topic, Gausemeier's scenario approach is assigned to one of the three main scenario technique schools in chapter two. Following this, due to the limited scale of this paper, a very summarized overview of Gausemeier's five-phase model of scenario management is presented. In chapter four and five, the advantages and disadvantages of the Gausemeier scenario technique are objectively analysed. The reflection paper ends with a subjective evaluation of the Gausemeier approach by the author.
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Overview on Scenario Techniques and Classification of Gausemeier's Approach
3 Gausemeier's Scenario Technique
4 Advantages of Gausemeier's Scenario Management Process
4.1 Knowledge Sharing and Communication
4.2 Consideration of Multiple Influencing Factors and their Interrelationship
4.3 Creation of Multiple Futures
4.4 Transfer of Scenarios into Strategic Planning
4.5 Transparent, Traceable and Replicable Method
5 Disadvantages of Gausemeier's Scenario Management Process
5.1 Knowledgeable and Diversified Participants are Required
5.2 Time and Resource Intensive Process
5.3 Limitations due to Complexity
5.4 Risk of Subjective Impacts
6 Discussion
7 Conclusion
References
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